I read with interest today’s article in the Wall Street Journal, “Publisher Delays E-Book Amid Debate on Pricing” and as one who has had an active hand in book publishing I found the position being taken by some in the industry incredibly short sighted. It reminds me so much of the positions taken by the music industry as they struggled to adapt to a world of abundance rather than scarcity and clung to a model filled with higher product costs, often unpredictable returns all while thumbing their nose at what consumers really wanted. Now as a dyed in the wool capitalist who struggles everyday to find additional ways to monetize what we do, I can appreciate their positions, but as many have learned, change is inevitable – you can either lead change or be run over by it. It is more fun to lead than be run over by change and so I choose to lead.
One quote that really stood out to me as missing the point was by the CEO of Sourcebooks,
It doesn’t make sense for a new book to be valued at $9.99,” said Dominique Raccah, CEO of Sourcebooks, which issues 250 to 300 new titles annually. “The argument is that the cheaper the book is, the more people will buy it. But hardcover books have an audience, and we shouldn’t cannibalize it.”
Why doesn’t it make sense for a new book to be valued at $9.99? Other than the obvious point that it is his business and he can do what he wants, is that how pricing is set in an free efficiently functioning market? That I want the value to be more doesn’t make it so in the eyes of your consumers. You can always hold back some of your offerings and try to skim the most value from those hard core fans, but is it the best way? Is it the best for a new series to hold back its rate of growth? I would suggest that not only not being the best for the author it is shortsighted by publishers to not rush to embrace the digital book world. While I am not going to suggest that all books should be equal in price at $9.99, the idea that they aren’t immediately available and at a discount misses the real opportunity. The aforementioned WSJ article continued,
In recent months, however, publishers have been increasingly setting the list prices for their digital books at the same level as the e-books’ traditional counterparts, he said. Retailers, though, generally pay publishers half of a hardcover book’s list price. So if a hardcover lists for $25, the e-book retailer is probably paying $12.50 for a product it might sell for less than $12.
Let’s look at some math just for fun. (admittedly oversimplified)
Industry is averaging around 35% return rate. (Digital rate is zero)
Hard Cover example:
$25 retail
$12 wholesale
100,000 print run
35% return rate
$2.25 variable product cost
$1.2 million gross revenue
$.250 million variable product cost
$.78 million revenue net of returns
$.53 gross profit (excludes royalties, retail promotion fees, slotting, marketing etc)
Profit per net copy sold = $8.15
E-book (we will say $9.99 for kicks)
Any price north of $8.15 to ebook retailers is a net positive (and that even assumes you still spend all the same promotion fees & slotting fees with ebook retailers you do with bricks and mortar stores – reality is costs are less)
But the e-book story gets more compelling. In the industry for books that have print runs of 100,000 last figures I knew had a success rate of less than 45%. That is more than half won’t earn any profit because the high returns will eat all profits. E-books have no variable costs for the publisher and most importantly have zero returns. Returns are the bane of book publishers and jokes about truckloads of books coming back are unfortunately true and common, yet rather than embrace an opportunity lead, too many publishers seem to be stuck in the ways that will make their enterprises of suspect value going forward.
As for the consumer, I now read all my books through Kindle on the i-phone and am reading more than twice as many books as I did before e-books, but even without consumers reading more books the real opportunity is to embrace and lead change.
EDIT: I was asked to extend my thoughts here with what would I do then if I was publishing books and so here are my thoughts. First, understand that the above economics are made even more compelling when you consider the impact of books that don’t generate sufficient sales and generate very high returns. If my back of the envelope math is right, on average a publisher could get under $6.50/book for e-books and still come out ahead.
What would I do:
- Do everything in my power to drive e-book adoption amongst my consumer base. Partner with e-book providers such as Amazon to drive more rapid adoption of e-books. Consider launching first on e-books and then in print, not the other way around. The fast you move people to e-books the better your long term economics will be. Barriers to entry will come down even further with e-books and if publishers insist on holding back they can and will be supplanted. Embrace and accelerate with a much lower cost and risk structure and learn to thrive.
- Leverage e-books like crazy to create adoption of new high potential series. The real money on a popular series isn’t made in the first few months of the first book anyway, it is made through the multiple purchases on a mass scale that a hit series drive. If I am launching a series I want scale, yet I need to manage risk and e-books give the best of both worlds.
- Work with e-book retailers to partner on ways to enhance e-books with built in sharing leveraging twitter and facebook so I can share my reading passions with those most likely to be influenced.
- Agains embrace e-book retailers and partner on ways that we can create more value in the equation through natural extensions and ancillary ways to monetize the content.
- Fish where the fish are. If consumers are shifting to e-books get their quickly and stake out your fishing hole early.
WSJ Link